U.S. container port imports are expected to decline year-over-year for the first time in 18 months, with President Trump's new tariff policies driving a sharp downturn in cargo volumes that could continue through the fall.

The Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates projects May 2025 imports at 1.81 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) — down 12.9% from May 2024 — ending 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth.

"We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump's tariffs on the supply chain," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes."

The dramatic reversal comes as the administration's escalating trade policies take effect. Trump has imposed a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of nations, and a staggering 145% tariff on China — hitting retailers during their most critical buying season.

Gold warned that these tariffs "will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves." The impact is particularly severe for small retailers, who are "concerned about what to expect in the coming months and how to order for the future."

The forecast shows a deepening downturn through the year. June is predicted to see 1.71 million TEU, the lowest volume since March 2023, representing a 20.2% year-over-year drop. By September, imports are projected at 1.79 million TEU, down 21.2% from the previous year.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, downplayed reports of supply chain collapse. "Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible," he said, but added that claims of empty terminals and ships making U-turns are "very far from the truth."

The downturn represents a significant shift from earlier forecasts. Before the April tariff announcement, projections showed continued growth through May, with first-half volume expected to increase 5.7% year-over-year. The revised forecast now shows just 0.3% growth for the first six months of 2025.

U.S. ports handled 2.15 million TEU in March, up 5.5% from February and 11.3% year-over-year — the last month showing positive growth before tariff effects fully materialized.

Imports surged in late 2024 as retailers stockpiled goods ahead of potential port strikes and anticipated tariff escalations following the November elections. Total 2024 imports reached 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and approaching pandemic-era records.

Global Port Tracker monitors 12 major U.S. container ports, tracking trends across West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast facilities.