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Commercial FlooringColumnsBusiness Insights

Business Planning When There Are Only Black Swans

By Mark Bischoff

The beginning of each year is a time for reflection and inspiration. With budgets set for the new year and the last numbers from the prior year confirming past actions taken were productive, we often see momentum carrying the business behavior in commercial interiors year to year. It takes a few years to build a building, so overlapping projects often drive the daily agenda in commercial real estate and the service providers in support. For the most part, the economic cycles had been linear and predictable, and value accumulated over time. Corporate profits were constrained by relative output. No one believed that a billion-dollar company could be started and run by one person, and most still don’t.

The mass of an organization, reflected in data around square footage, headcount, chairs, beds, or foot traffic could be directly translated into predictable demand for interior finishes and associated services. Under these circumstances, success could be repeated, and the reward spreads were normalized across the market players. Unlike other industries, where profit leaders like Apple, Visa, and Nucor hold a massive profit advantage over their competitors, the commercial interiors industry demonstrates a normalized reward spread between the best companies and mediocre operators.

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